Commercial

Finance and signals

The money view for Group: contribution after goods and media, efficiency against guardrails, budget pacing, a forward revenue view, and the handful of actions worth taking this week.

Business

Period

Revenue

$9,346,299

6.7%21 Sept 2026 to 18 Oct 2026

Contribution margin

$2,465,097

26.4% of revenue

Marketing efficiency ratio

13.76x

7.3% of online revenue on media

CAC payback

2.5 mo

CAC $40 · LTV $195

Contribution P&L

21 Sept 2026 to 18 Oct 2026 · modelled from revenue, margin and working media

Gross revenue	$9,346,299	100.0%
Discounts and returns	-$570,124	-6.1%
Net revenue	$8,776,175	93.9%
Cost of goods	-$5,367,509	-57.4%
Gross profit	$3,408,666	36.5%
Fulfilment and freight	-$737,199	-7.9%
Merchant and platform fees	-$157,971	-1.7%
Working media	-$48,399	-0.5%
Contribution margin	$2,465,097	26.4%

Efficiency guardrails

Every number against the threshold it has to clear

Measure	Current	Guardrail	Status
Marketing efficiency ratio (MER) Online revenue divided by working media	13.8x	> 5.0x	On track
Media as share of online revenue Working media against the revenue it supports	7.3%	< 20%	On track
LTV : CAC Contribution LTV over blended CAC	4.86x	> 3.0x	On track
CAC payback Months of contribution to recover acquisition cost	2.5 months	< 6 months	On track
Contribution margin After goods, fulfilment, fees and working media	26.4%	> 22%	On track
New customer revenue share Balance of acquisition and retention	7%	30 - 45%	Watch

Budget pacing

Month to date against plan, with projected month end

Meta Ads$15,976 of $21,566

Pacing at 109% of budget · projected $23,494 · trim daily caps

Google Ads$16,971 of $23,836

Pacing at 105% of budget · projected $24,957

TikTok and creator$3,794 of $5,108

Pacing at 109% of budget · projected $5,579 · trim daily caps

Retail media and other$5,017 of $6,243

Pacing at 118% of budget · projected $7,377 · trim daily caps

Revenue forecast

Next six months at current run rate, with seasonality and a confidence band

Sep 26

$10,147,411$9,538,566 to $10,756,255

Oct 26

$10,679,947$9,878,951 to $11,480,943

Nov 26

$11,533,953$10,495,897 to $12,572,009

Dec 26

$13,035,770$11,667,014 to $14,404,525

Jan 27

$9,145,658$8,048,179 to $10,243,137

Feb 27

$10,110,880$8,745,911 to $11,475,849

Priority actions

Ranked by commercial impact. Each is a hypothesis with an owner, not an instruction.

Warning

Organic search is under-built against category demand

348k monthly searches sit in the Group's category with no page one presence. Every one of those sessions is currently being bought twice through paid.

0 ranking terms

SEO

Warning

Winback flow is not live

Lapsed customers at 90 days receive nothing. Modelled recovery on the current lapsed base is worth low six figures a year.

Flow missing

Lifecycle

Opportunity

Subscription uptake sits below plan

Converting first-time buyers to subscription is the single highest-leverage move available: subscribers repeat at roughly three times the rate of one-off buyers.

40% of online revenue

Lifecycle

Opportunity

Desktop converts well above mobile but takes a fifth of budget

Test a desktop budget uplift on Google and Meta. Frame as a hypothesis: average cost per placement is affected by the breakdown effect, so validate with a holdout.

21% of spend

Paid media

Opportunity

Creative fatigue on the purpose angle

Frequency is climbing while click-through falls on the longest-running concept. Rotate in the traceability angle that is currently the best performer.

Fatigued

Creative

Data source coverage

What the console will read once each feed is connected. Until then every figure on the platform is modelled.

Source	Covers	Refresh	Owner	Status
Shopify Plus	Orders, products, customers	Hourly	Ecommerce	Access pendingAwaiting private app credentials for all three storefronts
Klaviyo	Email and SMS lifecycle	Hourly	Lifecycle	Access pendingAPI key requested
GA4	Sessions, funnel, site behaviour	Daily	Analytics	Access pendingProperty access to be granted
Google Search Console	Organic queries and rankings	Daily	SEO	Access pendingProperty access to be granted
Meta Ads	Paid social delivery and creative	Hourly	Paid media	Access pendingBusiness Manager partner access pending
Google Ads	Search, Shopping, Performance Max	Hourly	Paid media	Access pendingMCC link pending
TikTok Ads	Creator and paid social	Daily	Paid media	Not connectedAccount to be created
NetSuite	Trade revenue, margin, inventory	Daily	Finance	Not connectedScoping export format
Salesforce	Enterprise pipeline and accounts	Hourly	ABC sales	Not connectedPipeline stages to be mapped
Okendo reviews	Ratings, NPS, review themes	Daily	Brand	Not connectedOptional, phase two