Decision science

Growth model and scaling

The curves under Group: how far paid media can be pushed before it stops paying, what conversion and price are worth, how fast a customer pays back, and what the mix has to look like at scale.

Business

Period

Media saturation

of the contribution maximising paid budget

Marginal ROAS on the next dollar

8.65x

Breakeven 2.57x at 39% gross margin

Contribution headroom

$6,972,318

Add $15,788,042 of annual budget to reach it

CAC payback

Under 1 mo

CAC $40 · LTV $195 · 4.86x LTV to CAC

Media response and saturation

Annualised paid revenue and contribution against media investment

Contribution peaks at $16,418,961 of annual media, worth $9,713,564 against $2,741,246 today.

Marginal returns and marginal CAC

What the next dollar buys as budget scales

Marginal CAC on the next customer is $64 against a blended $40. Plan against the marginal number, not the average.

Marginal returns by paid channel

Rebalancing to equalise marginal ROAS moves $50,428 of annual budget and adds $103,274 of contribution

Channel	Annual spend	ROAS	Marginal ROAS	CAC	Marginal CAC	Saturation	Suggested spend	Contribution impact
Meta AdsTrim	$303,201	2.06x	1.13x	$98	$166	619%	$166,760	+$68,404
Google SearchScale	$124,462	4.88x	3.52x	$60	$78	33%	$236,478	+$26,655
Google ShoppingHold	$78,608	3.87x	2.55x	$56	$79	103%	$76,536	+$9
Performance MaxTrim	$68,127	3.31x	2.18x	$74	$104	162%	$42,042	+$2,191
Creator and affiliateHold	$22,459	4.64x	2.73x	$44	$69	86%	$26,000	+$106
TikTok AdsTrim	$20,588	1.69x	1.01x	$94	$146	1032%	$11,323	+$5,199
Retail media and marketplaceHold	$13,476	5.15x	3.09x	$34	$53	63%	$21,353	+$710

Conversion response to traffic

Site conversion decays as reach widens, so cost per order rises before revenue does

Doubling traffic holds roughly 2.38% conversion at the top of the range. Conversion work is what buys back the decay.

Contribution payback per customer

Cumulative gross profit against acquisition cost

Payback lands inside the first order. Twenty four month contribution per customer is $1,103.

Conversion levers, ranked by annual value

Each lever priced on current traffic and basket, so the roadmap can be sequenced on money rather than opinion

Lever	Current CVR	Modelled CVR	Uplift	Annual revenue	Effort
Trade portal: self serve reorder for cafe accounts	3.32%	3.67%	+0.35 pts	$721,239	High
Checkout: express wallets and address autocomplete	3.32%	3.61%	+0.29 pts	$598,101	Low
Product page: grind selector and subscription default	3.32%	3.61%	+0.29 pts	$587,275	Medium
Merchandising: bundle and sample the top three roasts	3.32%	3.47%	+0.15 pts	$308,523	Low
Site speed: cut LCP on mobile category pages	3.32%	3.46%	+0.14 pts	$282,812	Medium

Cohort revenue decay

Revenue retained per acquisition cohort, indexed to 100 in the first month

Newer cohorts flatten earlier, which is the retention work showing up in the curve rather than in a slide.

Price and basket elasticity

Modelled online volume and contribution response to a price move

Peak contribution sits at +10% on the basket, worth $264,234 a year over today's pricing.

Path to scale

What the mix has to look like to reach the target run rate, with CAC drifting against the same saturation curve

Horizon	Revenue	Media investment	MER	New customers	CAC	LTV to CAC	Contribution	Contribution margin
Now	$121,835,687	$630,919	193.1x	15,719	$40	4.86x	$46,690,061	38.3%
Year 1	$145,896,161	$823,511	177.2x	18,824	$44	4.66x	$57,155,623	39.2%
Year 2	$174,708,169	$1,074,894	162.5x	22,543	$48	4.47x	$69,926,506	40.0%
Year 3	$209,210,058	$1,403,012	149.1x	26,997	$52	4.28x	$85,502,846	40.9%
Year 4	$250,525,482	$1,831,290	136.8x	32,330	$57	4.11x	$104,491,725	41.7%
Year 5	$300,000,000	$2,390,303	125.5x	38,717	$62	3.94x	$127,629,697	42.5%

Decision register

Every curve on this page resolves to a call, priced and dated · trading window to 18 Oct 2026

Are we underinvested or oversaturated in paid media?

Blended media sits at 4% of the contribution maximising budget, marginal ROAS 8.65x.

Add $15,788k of annual budget in staged 15% steps, holding marginal ROAS above breakeven.

$6,972,318 a year at stakeHigh confidence

Is the budget in the right channels?

Marginal returns are uneven: blended marginal ROAS 1.99x while Retail media and marketplace runs at 3.09x.

Rebalance to equalise marginal ROAS across the paid mix, then re-test after two weeks of stable delivery.

$103,274 a year at stakeHigh confidence

Where does conversion work pay best?

Trade portal: self serve reorder for cafe accounts is worth 0.35 points of site conversion on current traffic.

Ship the checkout and product page work first, measure with a two week holdout on the affected templates.

$721,239 a year at stakeMedium confidence

Is there headroom on price?

Modelled basket elasticity puts peak contribution at +10% on the online basket.

Test a staged price and bundle move on the top three roasts before rolling across the range.

$264,234 a year at stakeDirectional confidence