Decision science
The curves under Group: how far paid media can be pushed before it stops paying, what conversion and price are worth, how fast a customer pays back, and what the mix has to look like at scale.
21%
4.62x
$2,118,384
Under 1 mo
Annualised paid revenue and contribution against media investment
Contribution peaks at $10,261,826 of annual media, worth $6,070,963 against $3,952,579 today.
What the next dollar buys as budget scales
Marginal CAC on the next customer is $49 against a blended $31. Plan against the marginal number, not the average.
Rebalancing to equalise marginal ROAS moves $571,294 of annual budget and adds $463,654 of contribution
| Channel | Annual spend | ROAS | Marginal ROAS | CAC | Marginal CAC | Saturation | Suggested spend | Contribution impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meta AdsTrim | $768,532 | 4.22x | 2.32x | $50 | $79 | 126% | $609,935 | +$8,270 |
Google ShoppingTrim | $486,937 | 1.99x | 1.32x | $112 | $149 | 719% | $267,815 | +$96,148 |
Performance MaxTrim | $303,443 | 2.58x | 1.70x | $98 | $131 | 337% | $166,894 | +$37,483 |
TikTok AdsTrim | $176,354 | 2.31x | 1.39x | $71 | $104 | 471% | $96,995 | +$31,683 |
Creator and affiliateTrim | $160,468 | 3.03x | 1.78x | $70 | $104 | 245% | $88,257 | +$16,204 |
Google SearchScale | $125,304 | 13.50x | 9.72x | $22 | $27 | 1% | $238,078 | +$273,202 |
Retail media and marketplaceTrim | $109,953 | 3.99x | 2.39x | $46 | $67 | 120% | $91,724 | +$664 |
Site conversion decays as reach widens, so cost per order rises before revenue does
Doubling traffic holds roughly 2.61% conversion at the top of the range. Conversion work is what buys back the decay.
Cumulative gross profit against acquisition cost
Payback lands inside the first order. Twenty four month contribution per customer is $965.
Each lever priced on current traffic and basket, so the roadmap can be sequenced on money rather than opinion
| Lever | Current CVR | Modelled CVR | Uplift | Annual revenue | Effort |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade portal: self serve reorder for cafe accounts | 3.64% | 4.03% | +0.39 pts | $2,974,573 | High |
| Checkout: express wallets and address autocomplete | 3.64% | 3.96% | +0.32 pts | $2,466,719 | Low |
| Product page: grind selector and subscription default | 3.64% | 3.95% | +0.32 pts | $2,422,072 | Medium |
| Merchandising: bundle and sample the top three roasts | 3.64% | 3.80% | +0.17 pts | $1,272,425 | Low |
| Site speed: cut LCP on mobile category pages | 3.64% | 3.79% | +0.15 pts | $1,166,390 | Medium |
Revenue retained per acquisition cohort, indexed to 100 in the first month
Newer cohorts flatten earlier, which is the retention work showing up in the curve rather than in a slide.
Modelled online volume and contribution response to a price move
Peak contribution sits at +10% on the basket, worth $476,693 a year over today's pricing.
What the mix has to look like to reach the target run rate, with CAC drifting against the same saturation curve
| Horizon | Revenue | Media investment | MER | New customers | CAC | LTV to CAC | Contribution | Contribution margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | $130,400,251 | $2,130,992 | 61.2x | 68,642 | $31 | 8.76x | $48,516,466 | 37.2% |
| Year 1 | $154,044,782 | $2,743,954 | 56.1x | 81,513 | $34 | 8.44x | $58,473,443 | 38.0% |
| Year 2 | $181,976,605 | $3,533,230 | 51.5x | 96,797 | $37 | 8.13x | $70,422,063 | 38.7% |
| Year 3 | $214,973,102 | $4,549,534 | 47.3x | 114,947 | $40 | 7.84x | $84,750,292 | 39.4% |
| Year 4 | $253,952,615 | $5,858,170 | 43.4x | 136,501 | $43 | 7.55x | $101,919,320 | 40.1% |
| Year 5 | $300,000,000 | $7,543,225 | 39.8x | 162,096 | $47 | 7.28x | $122,476,775 | 40.8% |
Every curve on this page resolves to a call, priced and dated · trading window to 21 Aug 2026
Blended media sits at 21% of the contribution maximising budget, marginal ROAS 4.62x.
Add $8,131k of annual budget in staged 15% steps, holding marginal ROAS above breakeven.
Marginal returns are uneven: blended marginal ROAS 2.32x while Retail media and marketplace runs at 2.39x.
Rebalance to equalise marginal ROAS across the paid mix, then re-test after two weeks of stable delivery.
Trade portal: self serve reorder for cafe accounts is worth 0.39 points of site conversion on current traffic.
Ship the checkout and product page work first, measure with a two week holdout on the affected templates.
Modelled basket elasticity puts peak contribution at +10% on the online basket.
Test a staged price and bundle move on the top three roasts before rolling across the range.