Planning
Forecasting and inventory
Where Group lands on the current trajectory, what changes if the trading levers move, and what stock has to be on the water to serve it.
$36,949,216
95.5%
7.9x
$6,165,054
Thirteen week demand forecast
Base run rate from 25 Jul 2026 to 21 Aug 2026, seasonally adjusted, with an 80% confidence band
Demand drivers
What the forecast is actually made of
Subscription base
34%
high confidence · Recurring shipments, the highest confidence line in the forecast.
Repeat purchase from existing customers
27%
high confidence · Modelled off the repeat curve and time to next order.
Paid media acquisition
18%
medium confidence · Elastic with budget but saturating; response modelled on a 0.7 power curve.
Gifting and Q4 seasonality
12%
medium confidence · November and December run 24% above trend on gifting and bundles.
Organic search and direct
9%
low confidence · Currently under-built, upside is not in the base forecast.
Scenario planner
Move the levers and read the annualised position
Diminishing returns applied at a 0.7 power curve
Bundling, price and attach rate
Checkout, speed and merchandising work
Lifts repeat revenue and lifetime value
Cost of goods, freight and discount depth
Scenario outcome
Annualised against the current plan
| Measure | Plan | Scenario | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $130,400,251 | $130,400,251 | +0.0% |
| Contribution after media | $48,516,466 | $48,516,466 | +0.0% |
| Media investment | $2,130,992 | $2,130,992 | +0.0% |
| Orders | 305,660 | 305,660 | +0.0% |
| Average order value | $427 | $427 | +0.0% |
| CAC | $31 | $31 | +0.0% |
| LTV : CAC | 8.76x | 8.76x | +0.0% |
| Blended MER | 61.19x | 61.19x | +0.0% |
Stock position by business
Where the Group's working capital is held, and which business is carrying the reorder risk
| Business | Lines | Stock at cost | Share of stock | Cover | Turns | GMROI | Open to buy | Lines to reorder | Revenue at risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seven Miles | 8 | $4,028,499 | 40.1% | 8.3 wks | 6.7x | 4.85x | $1,252,632 | 3 | $1,524,491 |
| Padre | 8 | $1,029,112 | 10.2% | 5.1 wks | 12.4x | 10.60x | $752,841 | 5 | $736,391 |
| ABC | 6 | $4,993,062 | 49.7% | 6.5 wks | 8.0x | 4.10x | $5,280,667 | 4 | $3,904,172 |
Inventory plan by brand
Cover, turnover and suggested purchase orders on forecast demand, each business planned on its own range and lead times · stock at cost $10,050,673
| SKU | Brand | Weekly demand | On hand | On order | Cover | Days on hand | Turns | GMROI | Lead time | Reorder point | Suggested PO | Stock out | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Signature blend 1kg (wholesale) | Seven Miles | 6,889 | 67,643 | 19,315 | 12.6 wks | 88 | 4.1x | 3.83x | 3 wks | 31,001 | - | covered | healthy |
| Green coffee - Brazil Cerrado (60kg bag) | Seven Miles | 245 | 2,230 | 652 | 11.8 wks | 82 | 4.4x | 2.56x | 14 wks | 3,795 | 1,525 | 23 Oct 2026 | order soon |
| House blend 1kg (retail) | Seven Miles | 3,035 | 30,677 | 8,685 | 13.0 wks | 91 | 4.0x | 9.15x | 3 wks | 13,658 | - | covered | healthy |
| Subscription - fortnightly 500g | Seven Miles | 4,480 | 25,265 | - | 5.6 wks | 39 | 9.2x | 20.52x | 2 wks | 15,679 | - | 29 Sept 2026 | healthy |
| Single origin - Huila 250g | Seven Miles | 4,398 | 8,805 | - | 2.0 wks | 14 | 26.0x | 40.62x | 6 wks | 32,984 | 35,174 | 4 Sept 2026 | reorder now |
| Decaf Swiss Water 1kg | Seven Miles | 1,516 | 3,010 | - | 2.0 wks | 14 | 26.2x | 36.16x | 7 wks | 12,885 | 13,665 | 3 Sept 2026 | reorder now |
| Cafe consumables - filter papers | Seven Miles | 1,032 | 10,942 | 3,055 | 13.6 wks | 95 | 3.8x | 3.41x | 5 wks | 6,706 | - | covered | healthy |
| Training and brew kit | Seven Miles | 511 | 5,329 | 1,495 | 13.3 wks | 93 | 3.9x | 3.06x | 9 wks | 5,370 | - | 1 Nov 2026 | healthy |
| Padre house blend 1kg | Padre | 2,310 | 23,716 | 6,684 | 13.2 wks | 92 | 4.0x | 9.83x | 3 wks | 10,395 | - | covered | overstocked |
| Subscription - weekly 250g | Padre | 3,639 | 5,283 | - | 1.5 wks | 10 | 35.8x | 83.57x | 2 wks | 12,735 | 16,549 | 31 Aug 2026 | order soon |
| Single origin rotating 250g | Padre | 2,771 | 19,907 | 6,309 | 9.5 wks | 66 | 5.5x | 11.81x | 6 wks | 20,784 | - | 10 Oct 2026 | healthy |
| Café wholesale 5kg carton | Padre | 337 | 1,907 | - | 5.7 wks | 40 | 9.2x | 6.12x | 3 wks | 1,515 | - | 29 Sept 2026 | healthy |
| Cold brew concentrate | Padre | 2,883 | 9,121 | - | 3.2 wks | 22 | 16.4x | 17.80x | 5 wks | 18,737 | 16,822 | 12 Sept 2026 | order soon |
| Capsules - 30 pack | Padre | 1,949 | 5,259 | - | 2.7 wks | 19 | 19.3x | 25.54x | 8 wks | 18,515 | 18,128 | 8 Sept 2026 | reorder now |
| Merchandise and gifting | Padre | 973 | 782 | - | 0.8 wks | 6 | 64.7x | 75.94x | 8 wks | 9,242 | 10,893 | 26 Aug 2026 | reorder now |
| Pour over and home kit | Padre | 311 | 1,243 | - | 4.0 wks | 28 | 13.0x | 7.97x | 9 wks | 3,263 | 2,796 | 18 Sept 2026 | reorder now |
| Consumables supply - carton | ABC | 2,937 | 28,179 | 8,102 | 12.4 wks | 86 | 4.2x | 4.26x | 4 wks | 19,088 | - | covered | healthy |
| Commercial grinder - EK43 | ABC | 74 | 224 | - | 3.0 wks | 21 | 17.2x | 7.04x | 12 wks | 1,077 | 1,113 | 11 Sept 2026 | reorder now |
| Espresso machine - 3 group | ABC | 15 | 124 | 37 | 10.8 wks | 75 | 4.8x | 2.20x | 16 wks | 276 | 168 | 18 Oct 2026 | order soon |
| Milk system spares | ABC | 812 | 6,208 | 1,924 | 10.0 wks | 70 | 5.2x | 6.28x | 6 wks | 6,902 | - | 13 Oct 2026 | healthy |
| Filter papers - carton | ABC | 2,194 | 11,225 | - | 5.1 wks | 36 | 10.2x | 7.06x | 5 wks | 16,452 | 12,905 | 25 Sept 2026 | order soon |
| Cleaning consumables | ABC | 2,991 | 6,867 | - | 2.3 wks | 16 | 22.6x | 24.54x | 3 wks | 16,450 | 20,052 | 6 Sept 2026 | order soon |
Six month revenue outlook
Monthly, seasonally adjusted, with confidence band
| Month | Low | Forecast | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | $10,209,089 | $10,860,733 | $11,512,377 |
| Oct 26 | $10,573,402 | $11,430,704 | $12,288,007 |
| Nov 26 | $11,233,717 | $12,344,744 | $13,455,771 |
| Dec 26 | $12,487,158 | $13,952,132 | $15,417,106 |
| Jan 27 | $8,613,934 | $9,788,562 | $10,963,189 |
| Feb 27 | $9,360,714 | $10,821,635 | $12,282,555 |
Forecast accuracy backtest
Last six closed months · MAPE 4.5%
| Month | Forecast | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26 | $9,774,660 | $10,372,857 | -5.8% |
| Mar 26 | $9,991,875 | $9,883,852 | -1.1% |
| Apr 26 | $10,209,089 | $9,550,380 | -6.9% |
| May 26 | $10,426,304 | $9,811,057 | -6.3% |
| Jun 26 | $10,643,519 | $10,765,522 | -1.1% |
| Jul 26 | $10,860,733 | $11,536,736 | -5.9% |